Comparison of Trihalomethane exposure assessment metrics in epidemiologic analyses of reproductive and developmental outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Researchers have developed exposure assessment metrics for disinfection by-products (DBPs) utilizing drinking water monitoring data and accounting for spatial and temporal variability, water consumption, and showering and bathing time with an expectation of decreasing exposure misclassification compared to the use of measured concentrations at public water supply (PWS) monitoring locations alone. OBJECTIVE: We used exposure data collected for a previous study of DBPs to evaluate how different sources of information impact trihalomethane (THM) exposure estimates. METHODS: We compared gestational exposure estimates to THMs based on water utility monitoring data alone, statistical imputation of daily concentrations to incorporate temporal variability, and personal water consumption and use (bathing and showering). We used Spearman correlation coefficients and ranked kappa statistics to compare exposure classifications. RESULTS: Exposure estimates based on measured or imputed daily THM concentrations, self-reported consumption, or bathing and showering differed substantially from estimates based solely on concentrations from PWS quarterly monitoring reports. Ranked exposure classifications, high to low quartiles or deciles, were generally consistent across each exposure metric (i.e., a subject with "high" exposure based on measured or imputed THM concentrations generally remained in the "high" category across exposure metrics.) The measured concentrations and imputed daily (i.e., spline regression) concentrations were highly correlated (r = 0.98). The weighted kappa statistics comparing exposure estimates using different exposure metrics ranged from 0.27 to 0.89, with the highest values for the ingestion + bathing/showering metrics compared to metrics for bathing/showering only (0.76 and 0.89). Bathing and showering contributed the most to "total" THM exposure estimates. IMPACT STATEMENT: We compare exposure metrics capturing temporal variability and multiple estimates of personal THM exposure with THM concentrations from PWS monitoring data. Our results show exposure estimates based on imputed daily concentrations accounting for temporal variability were very similar to the measured THM concentrations. We observed low agreement between imputed daily concentrations and ingestion-based estimates. Considering additional routes of exposure (e.g., inhalation and dermal) slightly increased agreement with the measured PWS exposure estimate in this population. Overall, the comparison of exposure assessment metrics allows researchers to understand the added value of additional data collection for future epidemiologic analyses of DBPs.

Short-term exposure to air pollution and infant mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Infant mortality is a widely reported indicator of population health and a leading public health concern. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we review the available literature for epidemiologic evidence of the association between short-term air pollution exposure and infant mortality. METHODS: Relevant publications were identified through PubMed and Web of Science databases using comprehensive search terms and screened using predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. We extracted data from included studies and applied a systematic rubric for evaluating study quality across domains including participant selection, outcome, exposure, confounding, analysis, selective reporting, sensitivity, and overall quality. We performed meta-analyses, using both fixed and random-effect methods, and estimated pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (95%CI) for pollutants (nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), coarse particulate matter (PM10), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO)) and infant mortality, neonatal mortality, or postneonatal mortality. RESULTS: Our search returned 549 studies. We excluded 490 studies in the abstract screening phase and an additional 37 studies in the full text screening phase, leaving 22 studies for inclusion. Among these 22 studies, 14 included effect estimates for PM10, 13 for O3, 11 for both NO2 and CO, 8 for SO2, and 3 for PM2.5. We did not calculate a pooled OR for PM2.5 due to the limited number of studies available and demonstrated heterogeneity in the effect estimates. The pooled ORs (95%CI) with the greatest magnitudes were for a 10-ppb increase in SO2 or NO2 concentration in the days before death (1.07 [95%CI: 1.02, 1.12], 1.04 [95%CI: 1.01, 1.08], respectively). The pooled OR for PM10 was 1.02 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.03), and the pooled ORs for CO and O3 were 1.01 (95%CI: 1.00, 1.02) and 0.99 (95%CI: 0.97, 1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Increased exposure to SO2, NO2, PM10, or CO is associated with infant mortality across studies.

Effect measure modification of the association between short-term exposures to PM2.5 and hospitalizations by longs-term PM2.5 exposure among a cohort of people with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in North Carolina, 2002-2015.

BACKGROUND: Approximately nine million adults in the United States are living with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and positive associations between short-term air pollution exposure and increased risk of COPD hospitalizations in older adults are consistently reported. We examined the association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and hospitalizations and assessed if there is modification by long-term exposure in a cohort of individuals with COPD. METHODS: In a time-referent case-crossover design, we used a cohort of randomly selected individuals with electronic health records from the University of North Carolina Healthcare System, restricted to patients with a medical encounter coded with a COPD diagnosis from 2004-2016 (n = 520), and estimated ambient PM2.5 concentrations from an ensemble model. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (OR (95%CI)) were estimated with conditional logistic regression for respiratory-related, cardiovascular (CVD), and all-cause hospitalizations. Exposures examined were 0-2 and 0-3 day lags of PM2.5 concentration, adjusting for daily census-tract temperature and humidity, and models were stratified by long-term (annual average) PM2.5 concentration at the median value. RESULTS: We observed generally null or low-magnitude negative associations with short-term PM2.5 exposure and respiratory-related (OR per 5 µg/m3 increase in 3-day lag PM2.5: 0.971 (0.885, 1.066)), CVD (2-day lag: 0.976 (0.900, 1.058) and all-cause (3 day lag: 1.003 (0.927, 1.086)) hospitalizations. Associations between short-term PM2.5 exposure and hospitalizations were higher among patients residing in areas with higher levels of annual PM2.5 concentrations (OR per 5 µg/m3 in 3-day lag PM2.5 for all-cause hospitalizations: 1.066 (0.958, 1.185)) than those in areas with lower annual PM2.5 concentrations (OR per 5 µg/m3 in 3-day lag PM2.5 for all-cause hospitalizations: 0.914 (0.804, 1.039)). CONCLUISONS: Differences in associations demonstrate that people in areas with higher annual PM2.5 exposure may be associated with higher risk of hospitalization during short-term increases in PM2.5 exposure.

Sulfur dioxide reduction at coal-fired power plants in North Carolina and associations with preterm birth among surrounding residents.

Coal-fired power plants (CFPP) are major contributors of air pollution, including the majority of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, which have been associated with preterm birth (PTB). To address a 2002 North Carolina (NC) policy, 14 of the largest NC CFPPs either installed desulfurization equipment (scrubbers) or retired coal units, resulting in substantial reductions of SO2 air emissions. We investigated whether SO2 air emission reduction strategies at CFPPs in NC were associated with changes in prevalence of PTB in nearby communities. Methods: We used US EPA Air Markets Program Data to track SO2 emissions and determine the implementation dates of intervention at CFPPs and geocoded 2003-2015 NC singleton live births. We conducted a difference-in-difference analysis to estimate change in PTB associated with change in SO2 reduction strategies for populations living 0-<4 and 4-<10 miles from CFPPs pre- and postintervention, with a comparison of those living 10-<15 miles from CFPPs. Results: With the spatial-temporal exposure restrictions applied, 42,231 and 41,218 births were within 15 miles of CFPP-scrubbers and CFPP-retired groups, respectively. For residents within 4-<10 miles from a CFPP, we estimated that the absolute prevalence of PTB decreased by -1.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): -2.6, -0.4] associated with scrubber installation and -0.5% (95% CI: -1.6, 0.6) associated with the retirement of coal units at CFPPs. Our findings were imprecise and generally null-to-positive among those living within 0-<4 miles regardless of the intervention type. Conclusions: Results suggest a reduction of PTB among residents 4-<10 miles of the CFPPs that installed scrubbers.

Is residential proximity to polluted sites during pregnancy associated with preterm birth or low birth weight? Results from an integrated exposure database in North Carolina (2003-2015).

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (PTB) and term low birth weight (LBW) have been associated with pollution and other environmental exposures, but the relationship between these adverse outcomes and specific characteristics of polluted sites is not well studied. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine relationships between residential proximity to polluted sites in North Carolina (NC) and PTB and LBW. We further stratified exposure to polluted sites by route of contaminant emissions and specific contaminants released at each site. METHODS: We created an integrated exposure geodatabase of polluted sites in NC from 2002 to 2015 including all landfills, Superfund sites, and industrial sites. Using birth certificates, we assembled a cohort of 1,494,651 singleton births in NC from 2003 to 2015. We geocoded the gestational parent residential address on the birth certificate, and defined exposure to polluted sites as residence within one mile of a site. We used log-binomial regression models to estimate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Binomial models were used to estimate adjusted risk differences (aRD) per 10,000 births and 95% CIs for associations between exposure to polluted sites and PTB or LBW. RESULTS: We observed weak associations between residential proximity to polluted sites and PTB [aRR(95% CI): 1.07(1.06,1.09); aRD(95% CI): 61(48,74)] and LBW [aRR(95% CI): 1.09(1.06,1.12); aRD(95% CI): 24(17,31)]. Secondary analyses showed increased risk of both PTB and LBW among births exposed to sites characterized by water emissions, air emissions, and land impoundment. In analyses of specific contaminants, increased risk of PTB was associated with proximity to sites containing arsenic, benzene, cadmium, lead, mercury, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. LBW was associated with exposure to arsenic, benzene, cadmium, lead, and mercury. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides evidence for potential reproductive health effects of polluted sites, and underscores the importance of accounting for heterogeneity between polluted sites when considering these exposures. IMPACT STATEMENT: We documented an overall increased risk of both PTB and LBW in births with gestational exposure to polluted sites using a harmonized geodatabase of three site types, and further examined exposures stratified by site characteristics (route of emission, specific contaminants present). We observed increased risk of both PTB and LBW among births exposed to sites with water emissions or air emissions, across site types. Increased risk of PTB was associated with gestational proximity to sites containing arsenic, benzene, cadmium, lead, mercury, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons; increased risk of LBW was associated with exposure to arsenic, benzene, cadmium, lead, and mercury.

Assessing associations between residential proximity to greenspace and birth defects in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study.

BACKGROUND: Residential proximity to greenspace is associated with various health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: We estimated associations between maternal residential proximity to greenspace (based on an index of vegetation) and selected structural birth defects, including effect modification by neighborhood-level factors. METHODS: Data were from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (1997-2011) and included 19,065 infants with at least one eligible birth defect (cases) and 8925 without birth defects (controls) from eight Centers throughout the United States. Maternal participants reported their addresses throughout pregnancy. Each address was systematically geocoded and residences around conception were linked to greenspace, US Census, and US Department of Agriculture data. Greenspace was estimated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); average maximum NDVI was estimated within 100 m and 500 m concentric buffers surrounding geocoded addresses to estimate residential NDVI. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals comparing those in the highest and lowest quartiles of residential NDVI and stratifying by rural/urban residence and neighborhood median income. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, for the 500 m buffer, inverse associations were observed for tetralogy of Fallot, secundum atrial septal defects, anencephaly, anotia/microtia, cleft lip ± cleft palate, transverse limb deficiency, and omphalocele, (aORs: 0.54-0.86). Results were similar for 100 m buffer analyses and similar patterns were observed for other defects, though results were not significant. Significant heterogeneity was observed after stratification by rural/urban for hypoplastic left heart, coarctation of the aorta, and cleft palate, with inverse associations only among participants residing in rural areas. Stratification by median income showed heterogeneity for atrioventricular and secundum atrial septal defects, anencephaly, and anorectal atresia, with inverse associations only among participants residing in a high-income neighborhood (aORs: 0.45-0.81). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that perinatal residential proximity to more greenspace may contribute to a reduced risk of certain birth defects, especially among those living in rural or high-income neighborhoods.

North Carolina's Changing Energy Generation Profile and Reductions in Key Air Pollutants, 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND Coal combustion releases a number of airborne toxins. The North Carolina Clean Smokestacks Act (CSA) of 2002 required North Carolina coal-fired power plants (CFPP) to reduce nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions by 2009 and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions to 2 benchmarks by 2009 and 2013.METHODS We utilized publicly available databases from the Energy Information Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency to characterize North Carolina's electricity generation profile from 2000 until 2019 and evaluate corresponding NOx and SO2 emissions by sector over the same time period.RESULTS Between 2000 and 2008 in North Carolina, approximately 60% of electric power was generated by CFPPs. Since then, North Carolina's electric power generation has transformed from predominant dependence on coal to approximately equal dependence on natural gas and nuclear power (each at ~ 30%), with coal close behind (~ 25%). Renewables have increased, although marginally relative to the rapid increase in natural gas. Despite the stark drop in reliance on CFPPs for energy in North Carolina and subsequent drop in emissions, CFPPs still contribute ~ 60% of SO2 air pollution as of 2017.LIMITATIONS This analysis relies upon electricity generation and emissions data self-reported by utilities and publicly available from federal agenciesCONCLUSION North Carolina's electric utilities met the 2009 and 2013 regulatory benchmarks set by the CSA, which resulted in substantial reductions in SO2 emissions from the fuel combustion electric generation sector. Still, CFPPs remain the primary utility-related and overall anthropogenic contributor of SO2 air pollution in North Carolina.

Is maternal employment site a source of exposure misclassification in studies of environmental exposures and birth outcomes? A simulation-based bias analysis of haloacetic acids in tap water and hypospadias.

In population research, exposure to environmental contaminants is often indirectly assessed by linking residence to geocoded databases of environmental exposures. We explored the potential for misclassification of residence-based environmental exposure as a result of not accounting for the workplace environments of employed pregnant women using data from a National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS) analysis of drinking water haloacetic acids and hypospadias. Methods: The original analysis used NBDPS data from women with haloacetic acid exposure information in eight states who delivered an infant with second- or third-degree hypospadias (cases) or a male infant without a birth defect (controls) between 2000 and 2005. In this bias analysis, we used a uniform distribution to randomly select 11%-14% of employed women that were assumed to change municipal water systems between home and work and imputed new contaminant exposures for tap water beverages consumed at work among the selected women using resampled values from the control population. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the association between hypospadias and haloacetic acid ingestion with the same covariates and exposure cut-points as the original study. We repeated this process across 10,000 iterations and then completed a sensitivity analysis of an additional 10,000 iterations where we expanded the uniform distribution (i.e., 0%, 28%). Results: In both simulations, the average results of the 10,000 iterations were nearly identical to those of the initial study. Conclusions: Our results suggest that household estimates may be sufficient proxies for worksite exposures to haloacetic acids in tap water.

A cross-sectional study of brownfields and birth defects.

BACKGROUND: Brownfields are a multitude of abandoned and disused sites, spanning many former purposes. Brownfields represent a heterogenous yet ubiquitous exposure for many Americans, which may contain hazardous wastes and represent urban blight. Neonates and pregnant individuals are often sensitive to subtle environmental exposures. We evaluate whether residential brownfield exposure is associated with birth defects. METHODS: Using North Carolina birth records from 2003 to 2015, we sampled 753,195 births with 39,495 defects identified. We examined defect groups and 30 distinct phenotypes. Number of brownfields within 2,000 m of the residential address at birth was summed. We utilized mixed effects multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for demographic and environmental covariates available from birth records, 2010 Census, and EPA's Environmental Quality Index to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We observed positive associations between cardiovascular and external defect groups (OR [95% CI]: 1.07 [1.02-1.13] and 1.17 [1.01-1.35], respectively) and any brownfield exposure. We also observed positive associations with atrial septal and ventricular septal defects (1.08 [1.01-1.16] and 1.15 [1.03-1.28], respectively), congenital cataracts (1.38 [0.98-1.96]), and an inverse association with gastroschisis (0.74 [0.58-0.94]). Effect estimates for several additional defects were positive, though we observed null associations for most group and individual defects. Additional analyses indicated an exposure-response relationship for several defects across levels of brownfield exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that residential proximity to brownfields is associated with birth defects, especially cardiovascular and external defects. In-depth analyses of individual defects and specific contaminants or brownfield sites may reveal additional novel associations.

Modeling complex effects of exposure to particulate matter and extreme heat during pregnancy on congenital heart defects: A U.S. population-based case-control study in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Research suggests gestational exposure to particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and extreme heat may independently increase risk of birth defects. We investigated whether duration of gestational extreme heat exposure modifies associations between PM2.5 exposure and specific congenital heart defects (CHDs). We also explored nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships. METHODS: We identified CHD case children (n = 2824) and non-malformed live-birth control children (n = 4033) from pregnancies ending between 1999 and 2007 in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a U.S. population-based multicenter case-control study. We assigned mothers 6-week averages of PM2.5 exposure during the cardiac critical period (postconceptional weeks 3-8) using the closest monitor within 50 km of maternal residence. We assigned a count of extreme heat days (EHDs, days above the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature for year, season, and weather station) during this period using the closest weather station. Using generalized additive models, we explored logit-nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships, concluding logistic models were reasonable. We estimated joint effects of PM2.5 and EHDs on six CHDs using logistic regression models adjusted for mean dewpoint and maternal age, education, and race/ethnicity. We assessed multiplicative and additive effect modification. RESULTS: Conditional on the highest observed EHD count (15) and at least one critical period day during spring/summer, each 5 µg/m3 increase in average PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with perimembranous ventricular septal defects (VSDpm; OR: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.01, 2.41]). High EHD counts (8+) in the same population were positively, but non-significantly, associated with both overall septal defects and VSDpm. Null or inverse associations were observed for lower EHD counts. Multiplicative and additive effect modification estimates were consistently positive in all septal models. CONCLUSIONS: Results provide limited evidence that duration of extreme heat exposure modifies the PM2.5-septal defects relationship. Future research with enhanced exposure assessment and modeling techniques could clarify these relationships.

Ozone exposure during early pregnancy and preterm birth: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Exposure to ozone has been linked to reproductive outcomes, including preterm birth. In this systematic review, we summarize published epidemiologic cohort and case-control studies examining ozone exposures (estimated on a continuous scale) in early pregnancy (1st and 2nd trimesters (T1, T2)) and preterm birth using ratio measures, and perform a meta-analysis to evaluate the potential relationship between them. Studies were identified by searching PubMed and Web of Science, screened according to predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, and evaluated for study quality. We extracted study data including effect estimates, confidence limits, study location, study years, ozone exposure assessment method, and mean or median ozone concentrations. Nineteen studies were identified and included, of which 18 examined T1 exposure (17 reported effect estimates), and 15 examined T2 exposure. Random effects meta-analysis was performed in the metafor package, R 3.5.3. The pooled OR (95% CI) for a 10 ppb increase in ozone exposure in T1 was 1.06 (1.03, 1.10) with a 95% prediction interval of 0.95, 1.19; for T2 it was 1.05 (1.02, 1.08) with a 95% prediction interval of 0.95, 1.16. Effect estimates for both exposure periods showed high heterogeneity. In meta-regression analyses of study characteristics, study location (continent) explained some (~20%) heterogeneity for T1 exposure studies, but no characteristic explained a substantial amount of heterogeneity for T2 exposure studies. Increased ozone exposure during early pregnancy is associated with preterm birth across studies.

Maternal Exposure to Disinfection By-Products and Risk of Hypospadias in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (2000-2005).

The purpose of this study was to estimate the association between 2nd and 3rd degree hypospadias and maternal exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) using data from a large case-control study in the United States. Concentration estimates for total trihalomethanes (TTHMs), the sum of the five most prevalent haloacetic acids (HAA5), and individual species of each were integrated with data on maternal behaviors related to water use from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS) to create three different exposure metrics: (1) household DBP concentrations; (2) estimates of DBP ingestion; (3) predicted uptake (i.e., internal dose) of trihalomethanes (THMs) via ingestion, showering, and bathing. The distribution of DBP exposure was categorized as follows: (Q1/referent) < 50%; (Q2) ≥ 50% to < 75%; and (Q3) ≥ 75%. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Generally, null associations were observed with increasing TTHM or HAA5 exposure. An increased risk was observed among women with household bromodichloromethane levels in the second quantile (aOR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.7); however, this association did not persist after the inclusion of individual-level water-use data. Findings from the present study do not support the hypothesis that maternal DBP exposures are related to the occurrence of hypospadias.

A spatially varying distributed lag model with application to an air pollution and term low birth weight study.

Distributed lag models have been used to identify critical pregnancy periods of exposure (i.e. critical exposure windows) to air pollution in studies of pregnancy outcomes. However, much of the previous work in this area has ignored the possibility of spatial variability in the lagged health effect parameters that may result from exposure characteristics and/or residual confounding. We develop a spatially varying Gaussian process model for critical windows called 'SpGPCW' and use it to investigate geographic variability in the association between term low birth weight and average weekly concentrations of ozone and PM2:5 during pregnancy by using birth records from North Carolina. SpGPCW is designed to accommodate areal level spatial correlation between lagged health effect parameters and temporal smoothness in risk estimation across pregnancy. Through simulation and a real data application, we show that the consequences of ignoring spatial variability in the lagged health effect parameters include less reliable inference for the parameters and diminished ability to identify true critical window sets, and we investigate the use of existing Bayesian model comparison techniques as tools for determining the presence of spatial variability. We find that exposure to PM2:5 is associated with elevated term low birth weight risk in selected weeks and counties and that ignoring spatial variability results in null associations during these periods. An R package (SpGPCW) has been developed to implement the new method.

Disparities in Distribution of Particulate Matter Emissions from US Coal-Fired Power Plants by Race and Poverty Status After Accounting for Reductions in Operations Between 2015 and 2017.

Objectives. To investigate potential changes in burdens from coal-fired electricity-generating units (EGUcfs) that emit fine particulate matter (PM2.5, defined as matter with a nominal mean aerodynamic diameter of ≤ 2.5 µm) among racial/ethnic and economic groups after reduction of operations in 92 US EGUcfs.Methods. PM2.5 burdens calculated for EGUs listed in the 2008, 2011, and 2014 National Emissions Inventory were recalculated for 2017 after omitting emissions from 92 EGUcfs. The combined influence of race/ethnicity and poverty on burden estimates was characterized.Results. Omission of 92 EGUcfs decreased PM2.5 burdens attributable to EGUs by 8.6% for the entire population and to varying degrees for every population subgroup. Although the burden decreased across all subgroups, the decline was not equitable. After omission of the 92 EGUcfs, burdens were highest for the below-poverty and non-White subgroups. Proportional disparities between White and non-White subgroups increased. In our combined analysis, the burden was highest for the non-White-high-poverty subgroup.Conclusions. Our results indicate that subgroups living in poverty experience the greatest absolute burdens from EGUcfs. Changes as a result of EGUcf closures suggest a shift in burden from White to non-White subgroups. Policymakers could use burden analyses to jointly promote equity and reduce emissions.

Critical window variable selection: estimating the impact of air pollution on very preterm birth.

Understanding the impact that environmental exposure during different stages of pregnancy has on the risk of adverse birth outcomes is vital for protection of the fetus and for the development of mechanistic explanations of exposure-disease relationships. As a result, statistical models to estimate critical windows of susceptibility have been developed for several different reproductive outcomes and pollutants. However, these current methods fail to adequately address the primary objective of this line of research; how to statistically identify a critical window of susceptibility. In this article, we introduce critical window variable selection (CWVS), a hierarchical Bayesian framework that directly addresses this question while simultaneously providing improved estimation of the risk parameters. Through simulation, we show that CWVS outperforms existing competing techniques in the setting of highly temporally correlated exposures in terms of (i) correctly identifying critical windows and (ii) accurately estimating risk parameters. We apply all competing methods to a case/control analysis of pregnant women in North Carolina, 2005-2008, with respect to the development of very preterm birth and exposure to ambient ozone and particulate matter $<$ 2.5 $\mu$m in aerodynamic diameter, and identify/estimate the critical windows of susceptibility. The newly developed method is implemented in the R package CWVS.

Associations between PM2.5 and risk of preterm birth among liveborn infants.

PURPOSE: Studies suggest exposure to ambient particulate matter less than 2.5 µg/m3 in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) may be associated with preterm birth (PTB), but few have evaluated how this is modified by ambient temperature. We investigated the relationship between PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy and PTB in infants without birth defects (1999-2006) and enrolled in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study and how it is modified by concurrent temperature. METHODS: PTB was defined as spontaneous or iatrogenic delivery before 37 weeks. Exposure was assigned using inverse distance weighting with up to four monitors within 50 kilometers of maternal residence. To account for state-level variations, a Bayesian two-level hierarchal model was developed. RESULTS: PTB was associated with PM2.5 during the third and fourth months of pregnancy (range: (odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.00 (0.35, 2.15) to 1.49 (0.82, 2.68) and 1.31 (0.56, 2.91) to 1.62 (0.7, 3.32), respectively); no week of exposure conveyed greater risk. Temperature may modify this relationship; higher local average temperatures during pregnancy yielded stronger positive relationships between PM2.5 and PTB compared to nonstratified results. CONCLUSIONS: Results add to literature on associations between PM2.5 and PTB, underscoring the importance of considering co-exposures when estimating effects of PM2.5 exposure during pregnancy.

Maternal exposure to outdoor air pollution and congenital limb deficiencies in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study.

BACKGROUND: Congenital limb deficiencies (CLDs) are a relatively common group of birth defects whose etiology is mostly unknown. Recent studies suggest maternal air pollution exposure as a potential risk factor. AIM: To investigate the relationship between ambient air pollution exposure during early pregnancy and offspring CLDs. METHODS: The study population was identified from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a population-based multi-center case-control study, and consisted of 615 CLD cases and 5,701 controls with due dates during 1997 through 2006. Daily averages and/or maxima of six criteria air pollutants (particulate matter <2.5 µm [PM2.5], particulate matter <10 µm [PM10], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], sulfur dioxide [SO2], carbon monoxide [CO], and ozone [O3]) were averaged over gestational weeks 2-8, as well as for individual weeks during this period, using data from EPA air monitors nearest to the maternal address. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) adjusted for maternal age, race/ethnicity, education, and study center. We estimated aORs for any CLD and CLD subtypes (i.e., transverse, longitudinal, and preaxial). Potential confounding by co-pollutant was assessed by adjusting for one additional air pollutant. Using the single pollutant model, we further investigated effect measure modification by body mass index, cigarette smoking, and folic acid use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted restricting to those with a residence closer to an air monitor. RESULTS: We observed near-null aORs for CLDs per interquartile range (IQR) increase in PM10, PM2.5, and O3. However, weekly averages of the daily average NO2 and SO2, and daily max NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations were associated with increased odds of CLDs. The crude ORs ranged from 1.03 to 1.12 per IQR increase in these air pollution concentrations, and consistently elevated aORs were observed for CO. Stronger associations were observed for SO2 and O3 in subtype analysis (preaxial). In co-pollutant adjusted models, associations with CO remained elevated (aORs: 1.02-1.30); but aORs for SO2 and NO2 became near-null. The aORs for CO remained elevated among mothers who lived within 20 km of an air monitor. The aORs varied by maternal BMI, smoking status, and folic acid use. CONCLUSION: We observed modest associations between CLDs and air pollution exposures during pregnancy, including CO, SO2, and NO2, though replication through further epidemiologic research is warranted.

Uncertainty associated with ambient ozone metrics in epidemiologic studies and risk assessments.

Epidemiologic studies relating ambient ozone concentrations to adverse health outcomes have typically relied on spatial averages of concentrations from nearby monitoring stations, referred to as "composite monitors." This practice reflects the assumption that ambient ozone concentrations within an urban area are spatially homogenous. We tested the validity of this assumption by comparing ozone data measured at individual monitoring sites within selected US urban areas to their respective composite monitor time series. We first characterized the temporal correlation between the composite monitor and individual monitors in each area. Next, we analyzed the heteroskedasticity of each relationship. Finally, we compared the distribution of concentrations measured at individual monitors to the composite monitor distribution. Individual monitors showed high correlation with the composite monitor over much of the range of ambient ozone concentrations, though correlations were lower at higher concentrations. The variance between individual monitors and the composite monitor increased as a function of concentration in nearly all the urban areas. Finally, we observed statistical bias in the composite monitor concentrations at the high end of the distribution. The degree to which these results introduce uncertainty into studies that utilize composite monitors depends on the contributions of peak ozone concentrations to reported health effect associations.